Looking at either the December corn or the November soybean futures chart shows a similar pattern since the May 13 low and subsequent reversal in both. On June 18th, both put in their most recent highs. At that point, December corn had rallied about 90 cents, and November beans had gained more than $1.30.
While corn has given back 35 to 40 cents of that rally, I think it’s good to note that we’re still more than 65 or 70 cents from that low point. Sometimes, it’s hard to put this all in perspective, but try to remember back to this winter, when the market spent months in a fairly sideways pattern and traded in a very narrow range. We hear some folks are somewhat unhappy about missing the opportunity in Mid-June, but please keep in mind that the current prices are still pretty good when considering where we have been. Keep in mind, even though corn prices have slumped a little recently, we’re still in the upper 1/3 of the chart.
For beans, while we’ve given back about the same 30 to 40 cents from the high, we’re more than a dollar from the low. The problem looking at bean charts is that the narrow winter time range mentioned earlier with corn was higher than where we are now for soybeans. It was a narrow range, all things considered, with prices falling hard during April and early May, but the climb back up has not surpassed the Jan/Feb/Mar prices. There are many reasons for this, but it is mostly a worldwide demand issue that is keeping a lid on values.
For now, our advice continues to be to look for price spikes to sell soybeans, especially if you’re holding on to any old crop bushels. For new crop, there may be a little more upside, but South America will impact our ability to rise too much, too quickly.
For corn, with the potential for a futures and or cash inverse after harvest, we think you need to seriously consider selling corn during, or before, harvest this year. Holding on to corn without locking in a cash price could very easily lead to settling for lower prices than where we are currently.