Weekly Recap June 21, 2019

Soybeans Farnhamville

Friday afternoon, July corn closed down around 8 cents at $4.42 ½, down about 11 cents for the week. December corn closed at $4.53 ½, down a dime from last Friday’s close. Soybean futures lost about 13 cents today, with July futures closing up 6 cents for the week at $9.02 ¾. November soybeans closed up 4 cents from last Friday’s close at $9.27 ¼. 

Rain continues to be a struggle across much of the Corn Belt, and the weekly Crop Progress report showed that again this week. Planting progress for corn was estimated to be 92% complete as of Sunday afternoon, compared to the normal of 100%. Just a note here that these numbers are to be based on acres that will ACTUALLY be planted this year. For example, if a producer has 60% of their fields planted and does not expect to be able to plant the other 40%, they are considered to be 100% complete. Emergence is also lagging behind at 79%, 18% below normal. The good/excellent condition rating for corn was left at 59% this week. Estimates out of South America sound promising at the moment for their production, with corn crop estimates being raised to 101.2 MMT and export projections raised to 38 MMT. On the flip side, U.S. Export Sales report showed around 38,000 MT of old crop corn sold the week of June 13th. Trade estimated this number to be in the 100 to 400,000 MT range. With such a disappointing old crop number, it was a pleasant surprise that new crop corn bookings came in within estimates at 361,000 MT, making it the 3rd largest this marketing year.

Soybeans have also been supported from the low crop progress numbers this week, with planting progress at 77% complete compared to the 93% average. Emergence is also behind at 55% this year vs. 89% last year and the 5 year average of 84%. In addition, export sales were a pleasant surprise this week coming in at over 571,000 MT for old crop. With the upper end of estimates at 400,000 MT, this was an 8 week high and more than double the same week last year.

Next week: USDA Acreage report will be out at 11 AM on Friday, June 28th. President Trump will be traveling to Japan for the G20 summit meeting June 28th and 29th.

Stay dry this weekend! With the rain coming in hard, fast and at high volumes, please remember to be aware of the risk of flash flooding and road conditions.

Be sure to listen to this week's Bull Bear Banter podcast to learn how all the rain is impacting the latest crop progress report.