Weekly Recap July, 12, 2019

Corn closeup

Friday afternoon, corn finished 10-11 cents higher in most contracts. September closed at $4.54 ¼, up 15 ¾ cents for the week. December corn closed at $4.59 1/4, up 17 cents from last Friday’s close.

August soybean futures closed at $9.13 ¼ today and November closed at $9.31 ½. Most contracts gained about 14 cents today, up 37 for the week. 

Overall, the hot and dry weather forecast seemed to be the main driver this week. Thursday’s less-than-exciting WASDE report, where the USDA raised corn production (no change in yield at 166 bu/acre) and end stocks slightly and lowered soybean production, did not have a huge impact on the market. Some in trade were surprised by the 100 million cut to old crop corn exports in this month’s WASDE. However, this matches the weekly reports we’ve seen that show exports are not on pace to hit the USDA’s number. 

While weather continues to be a struggle here in the U.S., news out of South America continues to sound positive. CONAB raised their corn production number up another 1.4 to 98.5 MMT, and the world table raised Argentina’s corn crop at 51 MMT. 

The USDA did reduce their soybean yield estimate by 1 to 48.5 bu/acre. While many in the trade find the 91.7 million acre number for corn hard to believe, the 80 million acre soybean number has a lot more supporters. Everyone will be keeping a close eye on the August 12th report that will include data from the resurveyed states following the June acreage report.

Light news this week, but the market seems to be enjoying this rally rather than running out of steam. We are seeing opportunities to take advantages of inverses ahead of harvest season but want to remind producers that the best/only way to do this is to sell – moving the grain simply isn’t enough, and eventually inverses correct themselves.

Check out this week's Bull Bear Banter Podcast here.

Have a safe weekend, and be sure to stay hydrated/in the shade if you are participating in outside activities!