Weekly Market Recap October 4, 2019

Landus Flag On Equipment 2016

December corn futures lost 4 cents today, finishing at $3.84 3/4, but that is up 13 1/4 for the week. November soybean futures added 4 1/2 today, ending the week at $9.16 1/4, up 33 1/4 for the week. 

The big news this week was Monday’s quarterly stocks report from the USDA. Corn stocks, as of September 1st, came in at 2.1 billion bushels, well below the 2.3-2.5 billion estimated range. Soybeans were a similar story, with estimates anywhere from 940 million to over 1 billion, and the actual number coming in just above 910 million bushels.

US on-farm corn stocks at this time last year, were 620 million bu., compared to 753 million this year. On the opposite side, off-farm stocks were 1.52 billion last year compared to 1.36 billion this year. 

For soybeans, 2018 US on-farm stocks were 101 million bu. compared to 265 million bu. this year. Off-farm stocks were also higher this year, 648 million compared to 337 million in 2018.

Positives in the corn market this week, besides the lower stocks estimates revolve around the delayed harvest across the country, which is keeping farmer selling light and keeping basis strong. Negatives include low export numbers and low ethanol demand. 

For soybeans, the other piece of good news was that China granted some more tariff waivers and purchased more soybeans this week. There is also more talk of dryness in South America, although some private estimates show a slightly larger expected crop there. 

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