Friday afternoon, May corn closed down a penny at $3.64 ¼, down 8 ¾ cents for the week. December corn closed down ½ at $3.88, down 5 ¾ from last Friday’s close. For soybeans, May closed down 6 ¾ at $8.95 3/4 , losing 15 ¾ cents for the week. November soybeans closed down 6 cents at $9.30 ½, down 15 ¼ from last week’s close.
USDA released March WASDE numbers this morning. Probably the biggest “surprise” was U.S. corn carryout was raised 100 million bushels from February’s report, 40 million bushels above the upper end of estimates. Minimal change in soybean carryout, only 10 million bushels lower than last month’s report and well within the range of estimates. No changes were made to Argentina’s corn and soybean production numbers of 46 MMT and 55 MMT. Brazil’s corn production number of 94.5 MMT was left unchanged, but their soybean production was lowered half a million metric tons to 116.5 MMT. Overall it seemed like trade was expecting larger decreases here, a potential contributor to the downward pressure in the soybean market today.
The general feeling from the report was bearish corn (large carryout) and neutral for soybeans. We appear to be running out of momentum on the U.S./China trade talks for the time being, and the markets are looking for something to put a positive spin on market movement. Until that happens, it is likely we will continue to see the downward trend for the time being.
Many in the trade will move on from this report to look at weather conditions for spring field work until we see the Planting Intentions report at the end of this month.
Some warmer temperatures coupled with the possibility of snow/rain this weekend. Spring could be on the way!