Weekly Market Recap March 22, 2019

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Friday afternoon, May corn closed +2 at 3.78 1/4, up 5 for the week. December corn was up 1 1/4, closing right at $4.00, up 4 for the week.

For soybeans, May finished down 6 3/4 at $9.03 3/4 down 5 1/2 from last Friday’s close, while November beans closed down 7 1/4 at 9.37 1/2 , off 5 for the week.

 

The big story this week was the hog market, where futures were limit higher on Thursday.  This pushed corn and soybean futures higher, with both finishing about 4 or 5 cents higher for the day. And the, Friday started out promising, at least for the corn market, but weakened a little mid-day before recovering some before the close. We don’t usually talk much about hogs, but what we’re hearing is that Canada, Mexico and China were all in the market buying this week. We’ve also heard that this has given the U.S. hog producer the ability to lock in some fairly favorable profit margins.

 

BULLISH NEWS for corn:

  • Export INSPECTIONS for the week were nearly double last week’s number
  • Prospects for Chinese corn purchases continue to be talked about
  • Wet weather in the Midwest continues to impact grain movement and support basis levels.

 

BEAR NEWS for corn:

  • While export inspections were nearly double the previous week, for the year, we’re off 17%, which is down more than 130 million bushels
  • All of this talk about China importing corn needs to be tempered with the fact that they have made major reductions in their hog herd. That will impact the over-all need for corn in China

 

BULLISH FACTORS for soybeans:

  • There continues to be hope for a U.S.-China agreement that will eliminate tariffs on soybeans and increase exports to China. Some stories continue to use the word large with regard to Chinese buying
  • U.S. Crush remains record strong for the year

 

BEARISH FACTORS for soybeans:

  • We need to keep the U.S. carry out at the top of the list – at 900 million bushels, that is a lot of soybeans
  • Weekly export sales were disappointing with beans at 400,000 MT, Soybean Meal at 95,000 MT, and Soy Oil sales at 5,500 MT. All of these are at the bottom of, or below,  the range of analysts’ expectations
    • YTD export inspections are down 30% from this time last year
  • Wet weather across the Midwest is causing a growing concern that soybean acres will not be much changed from last year. Perhaps, down slightly, but not down 3-4 million acres like we were all thinking earlier

 

The big thing to watch for is the USDA reports next Friday at 11 AM – we’ll continue to encourage folks to get some offers in prior to that time – whether it’s Old Crop or New Crop – corn or beans – get them in place

That is it for this week – stay safe and dry this weekend