Weekly Market Recap June 7, 2019

Agronomy Young Soybeans

Friday afternoon, corn finished down about a nickel. July futures ended the week at 4.15 3/4, and that is off 11 1/4 for the week. December corn closed at 4.33 3/4, down a dime for the week.

Soybean futures lost about 12 cents today and just over 20 for the week, with July futures ending at 8.56 1/4 and November at 8.83

A look back:

4 weeks ago, on May 10th, the USDA released their monthly crop S&D or WASDE report. Our market comments that day said:

“Using the March 29th Prospective Planting acreage number of 92.8 million acres and 85.4 million harvested, along with a 176 bu./Acre yield, corn U.S. production is estimated at just over 15 billion bushels for the 19/20 crop year. This compares with last year at 14.4 billion. The good news is that they are also expecting more feed and ethanol usage this year, but slightly lower exports. Net/Net, ‘19/20 ending stocks are pegged at 2.485 billion bushels vs. this year’s estimate of 2.095 billion.

For soybeans, the U.S. numbers are neutral to slightly friendly. Again, using the March 29th acreage estimate of 84.6 million acres, and a yield of 49.5 per acre, U.S. production will be down to 4.150 billion vs. the ‘18/19 estimate of just over 4.5 billion. They also increased U.S. crush slightly and moved exports up to 1.950 billion from 1.775 in ‘18/19. All of this shakes out to 970 million bushels in ending stocks, down slightly from the ‘18/19 estimate of 995 million. However, the world S&D is also still burdensome, growing from an ‘18/19 estimate of 99 million metric tons (MMT) in ending stocks to 113 MMT.”

When that day ended, corn was down about a penny and beans were about 2 1/2 to 3 lower. The following Monday, after the planting reports, corn started to rally and eventually, soybeans followed. From that point to today, corn futures have gained more than 60 cents and beans are up more than 50. And those are after the losses we saw today. So all in all, from a cash price standpoint, we’ve made up a lot of ground, as we already knew, but we thought it would be good to quantify just how far we’ve come in 4 weeks.

Our podcast this week discusses Bullish and Bearish factors that are currently impacting corn and soybean values. We’ve also added an extra segment with Mark Cullen, our Chief Animal Nutrition Officer. Mark discusses some issues impacting markets, from a feed and livestock perspective, like African Swine Fever in China. We think there is a lot of good information in this interview. If you’d like to listen, you can find it here: https://landuscooperativeexperience.podbean.com/