Weekly Market Recap July 19, 2019

Soybeans Farnhamville

Friday afternoon, corn finished about 6 cents higher with September closing at $4.30 ¾ and December at $4.35 ¾. For the week, most corn contracts slipped down 24 cents from last Friday’s close. Soybeans closed up around 20 cents today, with August closing at $9.01 ½ and November at $9.19 ¼. Overall, beans lost around 12 cents for the week.

“It’s not where we start Friday that matters, it’s where we end.” After a slow start this morning, rumors and trade chatter started making the rounds about sales and vessels of soybeans going to China this Fall, adding new life to the market. Looking forward, high temps and uncertainty about its impact on the corn crop pollination are still offering some support to the market. At the same time, we’re still unsure how close to 91.7 million acres we are actually going to be ahead of this August 12th report. At the same time, export sales continue to be lackluster, coming in at 200,000 MT, well under the 250-500,000 MT estimated. At this point, we are well behind where we need to be to meet USDA’s estimate for the year.

For many, the old adage about soybeans seems to be holding about them being “made” in August and are keeping their cards close to their chest. At the same time, we are questioning what kind of crop we are going to have, on the backend we are thinking about the question of what kind of demand will that crop have to meet? Back to the big debates about whether China will be looking to the US or South America for their needs, and how much their soybean needs have been impacted by ASF on their pork production. 

A lot of wait-and-see in the meantime. Stay cool and hydrated during these hot temperatures.