Weekly Market Recap February 22, 2019

Grain Podcast

Today, Old Crop corn and soybeans ended slightly lower, with New Crop unchanged to fractionally higher. For the week, March corn is up 1/2 at 3.75 1/4 and December corn gained 2 1/2, to close at 4.01 3/4.  March beans closed at 9.10 1/4, up 2 3/4 for the week. November beans were up 2 1/2 at 954 1/2 . So, all in all, a fairly uneventful week. During the trade today, corn was up a couple and beans were up about 3 at the high.


THE BIG NEWS THIS WEEK:  There really wasn’t any BIG news this week. There was however, a lot of speculation, conjecture and assumptions. But, nothing concrete, yet.


The President says that he and Chinese President Xi expect to meet in the not too distant future. President Trump did meet today with the Vice Premier and received a letter from Xi. The letter said that negotiators have made “significant” progress. Again, no “big” news here and not a lot different than what we’ve heard before.


***THIS JUST IN – USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that the Chinese have agreed to purchase an additional 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year***


“IF” the Chinese agree to importing more U.S. ag products, it is hoped that this will mean more corn (or ethanol) headed that direction. All of these incomplete news blips leave out a pretty significant piece of data: timing. Is this for this crop year, next crop year, the next 10 year, or something else?


Bull Factors for corn:

  • HOPE – hope for more demand for U.S. corn and/or corn products going to China

Bear Factors for corn:

  • Increased acres this spring are pretty well expected across the industry
  • Decreased ethanol production last week and increased ethanol stocks


Bull Factors for soybeans:

  • NOPA crush has been record high so far this year
  • S. soybean acres are expected to decrease this year by as much as 4 million acres

Bear Factors for soybeans:

  • 910 MILLION bushel carry out according to the last WASDE report
  • African Swine Fever woes in China – this has led to decreased soybean meal demand


Beyond all of this, there is a growing concern for some major political turmoil in the U.S. with Trump’s former attorney set to testify to congress next week as well as a couple of news outlets expecting the  report from Special Counselor Mueller.


And, as if that wasn’t enough, we get to prepare for another couple of days of rain, ice, snow and wind. Be safe in all you do this weekend.