Weekly Market Recap and Tom's Take, October 02, 2020

Agronomy Crop Nutrients 2 Landus Cooperative

MARKET UPDATE:

December corn lost 3 today, closing at $3.79 3/4, but that is up 14 1/2 for the week. March corn futures ended at $3.89 1/4, down 2 3/4 today, gaining 16 this week.

November soybeans lost 2 3/4 today, ending at $10.20 3/4, which is up about 18 week-on-week. January beans lost 2 1/2 today, to end at $10.24 3/4, also gaining about 18 for the week.

We thought the BIG story this week was going to be all about the USDA’s quarterly stocks report issued Wednesday and the subsequent rally we saw in corn and soybeans. That is until last night when word broke that President Trump, his wife, and at least one other member of the White House team had been diagnosed with Covid-19. Initially pushing grain and equity markets lower due to confusion and uncertainty about the future, it appears traders have shrugged off the news for now, with the Dow close to unchanged for the day and corn and soybeans rallying from their low of the day, while still finishing the day lower.

Regardless of what happens, the fact that the president has been confirmed to have Coronavirus, has injected more volatility into all market places. We’ll see what happens in the next couple of weeks with this story and the impact it has or doesn’t have, on grain markets.

As far as the stocks Report, for corn, the average estimate was 2.25 billion bushels as of September 1, with a range of 2.120 to 2.574 billion. The actual number, per USDA, was 1.995 billion. They also revised the 2019 production number to 13.62 billion, up slightly. So either they were wrong about the previous year’s production or demand, or they really missed 2019 demand. Either way, it was good for a 20 cent rally on Wednesday and Thursday before today’s reversal. 

Soybean prices also got a boost from Wednesday’s Stocks Report. Even though the actual number of 523 million bushels as of September 1 was inside the range of expectations, it was about 40 million less than the average guesstimate. It’s also another confirmation of a large drop from last year’s 909 million stocks. They did NOT revise the 2019 soybean crop production number, while many expected a slight increase.

For more items impacting corn and soybean values, tune into our FREE weekly podcast, the Bull Bear Banter: https://landusexperience.podbean.com/

TOM’S TAKE:

Wow, it’s already October, and this Sunday is Good Buddy Day! I hope you take time to show some appreciation to your favorite truck driver(s). While it’s not a well-known or even nationally recognized event, I always think about October 4th as THE day we should use as Trucker Appreciation Day. I have never understood why the powers that be selected some random week in September to recognize truck drivers, especially when it’s literally two weeks before Good Buddy Day. What were they thinking? 

Maybe they don’t remember CB radios, convoys and CW McCall. That fictional character, CW McCall, was created by Chip Davis, when he was in the advertising game. Yes, that Chip Davis of Manheim Steamroller fame. I’ve even visited the Old Home Fill ‘er Up and Keep on Trucking Café in beautiful Pisgah, Iowa. 

So, I know it’s harvest, and things are busy, with combines, tractors and trucks going hard. Just try to find time to say THANKS to your friendly truck driver this Sunday. Just tell them Happy Good Buddy Day – it’s 10/4, Good Buddy! 

That’s all for this week, can’t wait for some warmer temperatures next week. Talk to you then, Tom.Guinan@LandusCooperative.com