Weekly Market Recap and Tom's Take Dec. 11, 2020

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MARKET UPDATE:

March corn futures ended at $4.23 1/2, up 2 1/4 today, and up 3 week on week. December, 2021 corn ended at $4.12 1/4, gaining 3 today and 2 for the week. 

January soybeans added 7 3/4 today, to end at $11.60 1/2, losing 2 1/2 this week. November soybean futures ended at $10.52 3/4, up 6 3/4 today, and up 14 1/2 for the week. It’s kind of unusual to see New Crop beans gain and Old Crop beans lose. Maybe the market is signaling the spread was getting too wide and it needs to encourage more soybean acres? 

The BIG story this week is the December WASDE report issued by the USDA on Thursday. Even though most in the industry don’t usually expect a lot of changes in the December report, it felt like a let-down that there were NO changes for corn and very small changes for soybeans. Even the info regarding South American crops was pretty much unchanged. For Brazil, there were no changes to either corn or soybean production estimates from last month. For Argentina, they reduced both corn and beans by 1 million metric tons, which equates to about 40 million bushels of corn and about 37 million bushels of soybeans. So, not a lot of supply disruptions are expected even though we’ve all been hearing about the drought there and La Nina for quite some time, now. The message I’m receiving is that even with the dryness in South America, it’s still a little too early to pencil in major changes to production. It will all depend on how much rain they actually receive, when they receive it, and where they receive it. So, another item to keep an eye on over the next 2 to 3 months.

For other items impacting the direction of corn and soybean values, check out or Bull Bear Banter podcast: https://landusexperience.podbean.com/


Upcoming Events:

  • 2 weeks until Christmas…I’m not really sure what to say beyond that. Maybe that it’s only 3 weeks until 2020 ends? 


TOM’S TAKE:

Speaking of Christmas and New Year’s, this week I saw something posted on a website, and it made me think of everything that we’ve all been through in 2020…

It was attributed to C.S. Lewis and said: “You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending”

It made me think of a couple of other things – the first is a line from one of my favorite songs, that says “the times I thought were the end of the world didn’t turn out so bad after all”. I probably listen to that song more often than I would care to admit, but it puts it all in context for me – I’ve gotten through tough times before; the world didn’t end; I learned how to adapt. I am better for all of my life’s experiences. The 2nd thing I thought of was a saying that I keep on the bulletin board by my desk. It says, “you either get bitter or you get better. It’s that simple. You either take what has been dealt to you and allow it to make you a better person, or you allow it to tear you down. The choice does not belong to fate, it belongs to you.” I like that saying. 

Look, I know 2020 hasn’t been easy for anyone. With Covid, drought and derecho on top of all of the everyday, normal stresses we all face, it has really pushed everyone to the limit at some point or another this year. I’m not going to sit here and tell you I’ve handled everything this year as well as I would have liked, either. Things happen. Life happens. But, I do think we have a choice. Take it one day at a time, deal with things the best way I can and move forward. Always moving forward. You’re probably waiting for me to apply that to marketing grain. I don’t think I’ll do that this week. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions and write the ending to this part yourself. 

Agree? Disagree? Let me know: Tom.Guinan@LandusCooperative.com