At 11 a.m., the USDA released their monthly WASDE report, and it’s not pretty, especially for corn.
Using the March 29th Prospective Planting acreage number of 92.8 million acres and 85.4 million harvested, along with a 176 bu./Acre yield, corn U.S. production is estimated at just over 15 billion bushels for the 19/20 crop year. This compares with last year at 14.4 billion. The good news is that they are also expecting more feed and ethanol usage this year, but slightly lower exports. Net/Net, ‘19/20 ending stocks are pegged at 2.485 billion bushels vs. this year’s estimate of 2.095 billion.
For soybeans, the U.S. numbers are neutral to slightly friendly. Again, using the March 29th acreage estimate of 84.6 million acres, and a yield of 49.5 per acre, U.S. production will be down to 4.150 billion vs. the ‘18/19 estimate of just over 4.5 billion. They also increased U.S. crush slightly and moved exports up to 1.950 billion from 1.775 in ‘18/19. All of this shakes out to 970 million bushels in ending stocks, down slightly from the ‘18/19 estimate of 995 million. However, the world S&D is also still burdensome, growing from an ‘18/19 estimate of 99 million metric tons (MMT) in ending stocks to 113 MMT.
Prior to the release, corn was generally up a penny and soybeans were down about a penny. Just after the report, they were both down 7-8 cents for Old Crop and New Crop.
As of 11:30a.m., Corn is down about 2 cents, and beans are back to unchanged, maybe slightly higher.
For now, the market will digest more of the WASDE info, and then we will be back to looking at weather forecasts to give the market direction. And, if anything comes of the current U.S. and Chinese trade negotiations, that will impact the market, positively or negatively.
Listen to the Bull Bear Banter this afternoon for more on the WASDE report.