Morning Comments September 9, 2021

Grain bins dryer

This month of September has been a tough one, for corn in particular. When looking at current prices, December corn futures are nearly 30c lower this month while November soybean futures have followed along and are ~20c lower since 8/31. The weakness in corn has been a slow slide lower as the idea that this corn crop is larger than expected crept into the minds of the trade and allowed prices to fall. When the USDA announced last week that they would also be adjusting acres in tomorrow’s report (instead of just yield), that gave our market another reason to worry and did accelerate it a touch.

The weird (and somewhat hard to believe) story from yesterday: the FSA accidentally posted their acreage data on their website, data that was meant to arrive after 11 a.m. Friday. They quickly realized that they were two days too early and pulled it down, but then put it back up in the interest of “fairness.” I suppose since some in the trade saw it while some didn’t. So, first question of course is, what did it say? Well in August, the FSA had corn acres at 90.3 million, in yesterday’s whoopsie they had it at 91.2 million with the big increases coming in ND, SD, and NE. An extra million acres of corn would be a little more than the trade was planning for.

However, it is important to know that the USDA doesn’t only use the FSA data when determining acres, they also use NASS. Those are two completely different agencies with different ways of getting data, which means there is still a little mystery and drama to come in tomorrow morning’s USDA Report. 

Currently

Corn is 3 to 4 cents lower

Soybeans are 6 to 9 cents lower

Sept 9 Map 1 Sept 9 Map 2 Sept 9 Map 3 Sept 9 Map 4