Morning Comments September 30, 2019

Grain

Opening Calls:

Corn: Steady to 1 higher

Beans: 7 to 9 higher

The USDA quarterly stocks report will be released today. The trade is looking for multiyear high 2018/19 corn stocks, but wet weather hampering harvest progress should offset any negativity. Last week, the poor U.S. exports and the disappointing ethanol production didn’t help the corn market. Once harvest is able to get in full swing, it will take yields that are substantially under current estimates for the U.S. or some sort of crop problem in South America this winter to spark a rally that goes too far. 

There is now rain in the forecast for Brazil, and Argentina is on the dry side. They are two to three weeks away from planting in earnest. The U.S. farmer is not a seller of corn at these levels, with the bias that the U.S. crop will be smaller than the trade believes. That has resulted in basis levels that would not be expected given the size of the projected carryout, the fact that the U.S. crop is expected to be the 6th largest in history and U.S. fob prices are the highest in the world. 

For grain that you will need to move this fall and do not want to price, talk to you GMA about contract offerings that will allow you to deliver grain, avoid storage fees and stay in the market.