Morning Comments September 29, 2020

Sillouette Harvest Sunset

Opening Calls:

Corn: 2 to 3 lower

Beans: 4 to 5 lower 

Tomorrow morning, the USDA will release its Grain Stocks report. Here are the average trade estimates: 

Corn: September 1st Corn Stocks (in billions of bushels)

Average Estimate: 2.250

Range Estimates: 2.120 to 2.574

Last Year: 2.210

Beans: September 1st Soybean Stocks (in millions of bushels) 

Average Estimate: 576

Range of Estimates: 490 to 608

Last Year: 909

In yesterday’s weekly crop progress and condition ratings, the national crop condition rating for corn remained the same at 61% in the good to excellent rating and the Iowa rating remained unchanged at 42%. The national percent harvested is up to 15% from last weeks 8%. On soybeans, the percentage harvested in Iowa is at 30% up from 7% last week and the national average is at 20% up from 6% last week. 

Corn is trading lower this morning with harvest progressing and a weather forecast for rapid progress over the next 10 days. Yields have also been coming in as expected or a little better in some areas. The corn market is going to need an increase in Chinese demand or problems in South America to sustain the current prices through harvest. Soybeans are trading lower this morning as harvest is progressing. Decent rains are forecasted into the weekend in Brazil, but dry conditions project for October, and the La Nina forecasted for South American is keeping the support under the soybean market.