Morning Comments September 18, 2020

Combine Grain Cart

Opening Calls:

Corn steady to 1 higher 

Beans 9 to 10 higher 

Corn and beans continue to rally based on export sales, fund buying, concerns of dry South American weather, and talk that Brazil is running low on inventories and may be looking to buy beans from the U.S. to get them to their new crop time frame. 

Corn prices have rallied 50+ cents from the August lows due to strong Chinese buying, strength in the soybean and wheat markets, and fund buying (currently funds are estimated +77,000 contract). However, bears are still looking for the U.S. corn carryout somewhere in the 2.0 billion bushel range and are wondering as harvest gets in full swing will the funds appetite start to diminish. While the trade is concerned about the La Nina that is currently in full swing there is talk of a potentially wetter forecast for South America in October.

Soybeans continue into uncharted territory based on exports and fund buying. The big story on beans is the weather in South America and how long China stays in the market for U.S. beans. Bulls are pointing out that we have already committed 55% of the USDA’s forecasted exports and bears are quick to question how many of these commitments will actually ship, once South America gets into harvest. 

For now, the bulls are in control on both corn and beans. With harvest getting underway, now is a good time to speak with your local GMA to discuss marketing alternatives to help your business take advantage of the current bull market.