Morning Comments September 10, 2021

Harvest 3

With the USDA report out at 11 a.m. today, the trade is anxiously awaiting what many think could be a bearish report. With talk of acres rising, corn yield jumping over 175 bpa, and demand a touch weaker, this, in theory, gives us a little more carryout and a little less reason to be long corn. However, we’ve been talking about these factors for a while now so the real question is: how much of it is already priced in? We need to be careful about a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” type trade this morning. 

Once this is behind us, we can turn the page a bit. Yes, we likely have a bigger crop than maybe we thought a month ago. We need to remember though, that this whole rally started from the DEMAND side of the equation, namely China. On the corn side, although there have been plenty of rumors, China has been quiet lately, and if we can’t drum up fresh demand for U.S. corn on this price break sometime soon, you may see some of the spec/fund longs start to sell into any rally that materializes as we get closer to harvest. Might not be bad advice for a producer also. 

Currently

Corn is steady to a penny higher

Soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher