Morning Comments September 1, 2021

Soybeans

The trend has not been our friend lately and that didn’t change overnight as the corn and soybean futures markets continued to drift lower. December corn futures & November soybean futures are both approaching lows that were made back in early July, causing a few people in the market to start making recommendation to buy. This time of year is just tough though, we don’t have a weather forecast that matters enough to drastically change anyone’s minds on production, and without news to feed the bull, we natural tend to leak lower. Of course, the next round of government crop estimates will be out next Friday (September 10th), with the USDA S&D and Crop Production reports which could breathe some fresh air into our lifeless markets. With that report now on the clock, we will also start to see private estimates coming out seemingly every day up until then.

On the demand side of things, there are some very real fears out there that the damage done in the U.S. Gulf from Hurricane Ida will effect U.S. exports (and thus U.S. demand) into the next crop year, in particular during the big soybean export window. While the market will do what they can to shift the demand to other points (Texas Gulf, U.S. PNW) there was talk yesterday about China knocking on Brazil’s door already for replacement bushels. The hard part about that of course is that South America is somewhat tapped out on volumes, at least until they see another round of harvest this Feb/Mar/Apr. There are lots of moving parts here and many places in Louisiana are still without power.

Currently

Corn is 3 to 6 cents lower

Soybeans are 4 to 8 cents lower

Sept 1 Map 1 Sept 1 Map 2 Sept 1 Map 3 Sept 1 Map 4