Morning Comments October 7, 2019

Grain bins dryer

Opening Calls:

Corn steady to 1 higher 

Soybeans steady to 1 higher 

Last week, December corn futures gained 13 1/4 for the week and November soybeans added 33 1/4 for the week. Most of these gains came Monday after the 11AM USDA Quarterly Stocks report. 

Funds reduced their position in corn by almost 34,000 contracts, and as of last Tuesday they are about 126,000 contracts short. Later today, we’ll see the weekly export inspections report, but there is not a lot of optimism for a big number this early in the crop year. Later today, we’ll see the harvest progress and condition ratings. We don’t expect a lot of change in harvest progress report from last week with all of the rain across the U.S. Midwest. At this point, everyone just wants to get Harvest started and in a big way. Looking at some extended forecasts, it appears that after this next event, Tuesday and into Wednesday, we “could” have a couple of weeks of dry weather. 

The funds also reduced their short position in soybeans by almost 33,000 contracts, leaving them 8,700 contracts short as of last Tuesday. There continues to be some concerns about South American soy production for this year, due to dryness, and that could have influenced the additional sales announced to China last week. Those were somewhat lighter than the last couple of announcements. These sales could also influence the meeting scheduled between the U.S. and Chinese negotiators this week. We’ll see if this round of discussions amount to anything. 

Other items to keep an eye on this week: 

  • The dollar was a little weaker last week. 
  • Crude oil has retraced some of the gains last month, and is now around $53 per barrel. 
  • Ongoing political concerns in the U.S., Great Britain and other parts of the world. 
  • Global economic data pointing to slowing economies.