Morning Comments October 3, 2019

Grain Marketing

Opening calls:

Corn steady/mixed

Soybeans up 1 to 2 cents

Markets are starting the day off rebounding slightly from the overnight, which was lower as the overall economic news seems to point to a slowing U.S. economy. The battle between the supply bulls and the demand bears is continuing. Until the weather straightens out and we are able to progress further into harvest we will continue to speculate on yields which, along with outside forces such as the trade war with China, will keep volatility in the markets.

The ethanol production report showed that production was up 5 million gallons from the previous week, but was down 17 million gallons for the same week in 2018. The USDA is predicting that corn used for ethanol production will be up 5% from last year; that is quite a gap between projections and reality so far this year. Ethanol stocks are up 30 million gallons to 975 million. Combine this with a 3.1 million barrel increase in the crude oil stocks which remain 5% above year-ago levels, and this should keep pressure on ethanol.

The USDA weekly export sales will be out today with the trade looking for sales in the 400-550,000 mt range.

Given the volatility in the current markets, contact your local GMA who can provide you with contract options to help manage the grain you will need to move at harvest.