Morning Comments October 29, 2019

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Opening Calls:

Corn: Steady

Beans: 1-2 lower

The USDA has pegged corn harvest at 41% completed compared to 61% average and soybeans 62% completed compared to 78% average as of this past Sunday. U.S. corn exports were pegged at 15 million bushels which came in below the trade estimate and was down from the previous week’s 22.8 million bushels as well. Cumulative exports are down 60% from last year at this time at 137 million bushels compared to 342 million bushels. Weather interruptions will come this week but the trade is projecting corn harvest will be halfway done by the end of the week. Soybean exports were strong again at a marketing-year high of 57.6 million bushels. The weather forecast has improved for South American production areas and with funds being net long and technical indicators pointing lower, there is a concern we could see some long liquidation ahead of the WASDE report on November 8th.

Those planning on raising corn in 2020 will want to keep a close eye on the December contract in the 4.10 to 4.20 range. If we see trend line yields and assume at least half of the 19 million prevent plant acres go back into corn production, the U.S. would see another big ending stocks number which would make it hard for prices to push past those levels.