Morning Comments May 5, 2021

Caseih Planting 70

The overnight market felt a little slower last night, although that hasn’t stopped the bullish train with corn and soybeans both trading positive as I type this this morning. Weather forecasts in Brazil (during corn pollination, FYI) have yet to change from the dry pattern they’ve been in, and until they do the market will continue to trade a shrinking corn crop down there, with the only real question now being how short will it be?

The next S&D report will be out on May 12th. Will the USDA and CONAB show the full Brazilian reduction the market is trading? Or will they slow-play it, and if so, how will the trade react to that? May 12th is going to a big report for several reasons, with the Brazilian crop estimate being near the top of the list.

For today, it feels like more of the same. Choppy, volatile, and generally firmer. Demand overall remains strong, and until we see a sign of that breaking, the market’s job remains the same in old crop– take prices high enough to ration demand. From what we see today, their work is not done.

Currently:

Corn is 4 to 7 cents higher

Soybeans are 10 to 13 cents higher

May 5 Map 1
May 5 Map 2