Morning Comments May 28, 2021

Corn with location behind

As many of you are aware, our corn market saw a sharp rally yesterday and we ended the day with July corn settling 40c higher!!! I should cool it with exclamation points though, because all that 40c rally did was erase the ~40c losses we endured two days earlier­- not as exciting when you say it that way. 

So, what was the catalyst yesterday? It appeared to come from the weekly export sales report released that morning that (contrary to popular belief) did NOT contain any old crop sales cancellations from China and actually had additional sales to “unknown” (we know that means you, China) penciled in for new crop. Nothing huge here volume-wise. In today’s market environment though? A swift change in feel/direction was all it took; the new shorts that had sold the market down two days earlier got squeezed hard and our corn market eventually traded limit higher (pulling soybeans along for the ride also). In this market, the only thing we can count on is volatility and I’m afraid weeks like this are just the beginning.

Looking at price action today, our overnight markets ran into a bit of technical resistance (aka the charts said to sell, not buy) and are all trading lower as I type this. Today carries with it a touch of extra weather risk because of the three-day weekend in front of us. Remember: after our markets close this afternoon, they won’t open up again until 7pm Monday night which gives Mother Nature an extra day to mess with us without the market being able to react. 

Currently

Corn is 4 to 8 cents lower

Soybeans are 5 to 9 cents lower

May 28 map 1
May 28 map 2