Morning Comments May 26, 2021

Bin sunset harvest

To start off the day our corn and soybean markets are continuing their recent trend lower, except for old crop corn which is so far staying in the green today. We have seen the funds sell down their long July futures positions after a truly historic rally from April into the first of May. With end-users having decent coverage into June/July, the market is not finding support at these levels, at least not enough to outweigh the fund selling. This is allowing for the big waves of lower price action that have been hitting us lately.

With all of that, as the calendar rolls on the market will argue about what a “fair price” for new crop corn should be. On one side, you have a drought still showing up in the west but conversely you have crops in the ground ahead of schedule, which historically should get you something close to “trend line” yields. So, the bulls are now looking for a big-time Summer weather problem (currently not materializing) OR a swing and a miss on the acreage side of the equation. Understanding true acreage, for now, is tough to do, which means the June 30th final planted acreage report will be a big one. These June 30th reports are known to rock the market, one way or the other. So while the grain markets sure appear to be on thin ice at the moment, until we know the acres piece, you should have a few spec longs wanting to stay in this thing, hopefully giving us a floor here at some point.

Currently:

Corn is mixed, 2c lower to 3c higher

Soybeans are 4 to 8c lower

May 26 Map 1
May 26 Map 2