Morning Comments May 25, 2021

Our markets are starting off mixed to higher this morning as soybeans rallied overnight on some slightly friendly crop progress results from yesterday afternoon. It isn’t much, but soybeans came in at 75% planted when the market was expecting closer to 80%. Let’s not get too worked up; this is still the fastest planting pace for soybeans since 2012! Corn checked in at 90% complete, well above the normal for this time of year. Maps below.

Starting next week, the USDA will also start handing out crop ratings for corn. This is where we start watching the category of “good-to-excellent”; it’s safe to say the market will be expecting them to come in well above the 5-year average. The weather in the Midwest has simply been pretty favorable, crops are in the ground and there is moisture there for them to work off of. Of course the subsoil moisture is still lacking but for now, but there isn’t much to complain about and this is reflected in our somewhat stagnant price action of late.

That said, the importance of the U.S. crop in regards to world demand for corn cannot be overstated. We have seen before how fast a good crop can turn poor (see: last year) and that should keep a bid under this market and keep all eyes on weather forecasts for signs of a change. This week could be a good example of that as we have a three-day weekend this weekend with no markets on Monday for Memorial Day. A lot can change in 3 days, for better or worse. 

Lastly, on the export sales sided of things, we have gone two whole trading days (Friday and Monday) without news of additional corn sales to China. While that may not seem like much, the bulls are hungry and they aren’t getting fed. Let’s see what today brings!

Currently:

Corn is steady to 3c lower

Soybeans are 5 to 10c higher

May 25 Map 1
May 25 Map 2