Morning Comments May 19, 2021

Grain Bins

Our markets all traded lower last night, led by nearby soybean futures. Yesterday, the corn market did carve out some small gains for us (~6c higher) after seeing more sales announcements to China, only to give those gains up last night of course. As you are all likely aware of by now, we are in a volatile market with a daily/hourly tug-of-war between knowns and unknowns, and it could be this way for a while. 

Here are few things we think we know: stocks are low, old crop demand is strong, the U.S. crop was planted in a timely manner, and there are parts of the U.S. that are in drought conditions. Here are a few things we don’t know: final Brazilian safrinha corn crop size, U.S. planted acreage, U.S. growing season weather (aka: U.S. corn/soybean yields), and the demand picture for next year. Of course, that list above isn’t close to covering everything, but you get the general idea. 

Now as some in the trade start to shift unknowns into knowns (even if only temporary), the price changes. Today? Weather looks pretty good and soybean demand feels a bit stagnant, so we sell off. Makes sense. Yesterday? China bought MORE new crop corn and we saw reports of Brazil’s crop continuing to shrink, so we rallied. Also makes sense. Tomorrow? I guess we will have to check it out together when we get there!

Currently:

Corn is 7 to 10c lower

Soybeans are 15 to 25c lower

May 19 Map 1
May 19 Map 2