Morning Comments May 12, 2021

Johndeere Planting 21

Well here we are -- today is report day, as the USDA will release its updated supply and demand numbers at 11:00:00 this morning! To give you some idea on expectations, here are the average trade guesses for some of the key numbers we will see this morning:

2020/2021 Carryout/Ending Stocks

    • Corn: 1.275b bu. (was 1.352b bu. last month)
    • Soybeans: 117m bu. (was 120m bu. last month)

2021/2022 Carryout/Ending Stocks

    • Corn: 1.344b bu. (this is the USDA’s first look at the 21/22 crop year)
    • Soybeans: 138m bu. (this is the USDA’s first look at the 21/22 crop year)

2020/2021 South American Production

    • Brazil Corn: 103.05m MT (was 109.00m MT last month)

So now, we wait and see. It will be very interesting to watch how aggressive the USDA will be in this report. The trade, of course, is looking for increased corn demand to tighten ending stocks in the U.S. and is looking for that dry weather in Brazil to show up in their production and effect global supply. But will they reflect all of that in today’s report or will they buy a little time, wait for more information, and stretch this out over subsequent reports?

On the soybean side of things, there aren’t many changes expected today. Things are already extremely tight, so how much tighter can it get, and does it even matter at this point? Tight is tight. It does feel like our best barometer for the soybean S&D will be when we see the next quarterly stocks report (released June 30th), which will reflect just how hard/fast we are crushing beans here in the U.S. That doesn’t mean today can’t bring fireworks of course (up or down), there just aren’t as many obvious variables that you can put your finger on.

Remember: our new price limits allow for corn to move 40c and soybean to move $1 in a day, not for the faint of heart!

Currently:

Corn is mixed

Soybeans are 10 to 20 cents higher