Morning Comments May 1, 2020

Spring application

Happy May Day! 

Opening Calls:

Corn: 1 to 2 lower

Beans: 3 to 4 lower

The corn market saw a nice month-end profit-taking rally yesterday as traders exited that pretty large short position. U.S. corn export sales last week were a strong 53.4 mil bushels, which is the highest in three weeks, and much larger than last year’s same-week sales of 23.1 mil bushels as well as above the market expectations. Corn is trading lower this morning due to the reality that the corn supply is still large and the trade is looking for 50% of the crop to be planted as of this coming Sunday afternoon. Wet conditions have slowed progress in the eastern corn belt but they are still way ahead of last year’s pace.

Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans had finally been starting to pick up slightly with China buying an estimated 300k tons of U.S. soybeans yesterday for Aug/Sept shipment from the U.S. Gulf Coast. However, those purchases could be short-lived as President Trump threatened new tariffs on the country because of the COVID outbreak. Additionally, The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday estimated the Argentine soybean harvest at 68% complete this week. 

Rains will be scattered through the weekend, picking up a bit during the first half of next week with action heaviest in the north. Extended forecasts remain fairly dry overall. Some weather models are now running drier for Brazilian safrinha corn areas next week as well and rains are projected to remain limited in Argentina for their harvest. Longer-term forecasts are drier this morning for Ukraine, Russia, and Eastern European wheat areas today as well.

Stay tuned later today for the latest episode of the Bull Bear Banter podcast.