Morning Comments May 1, 2019

Corn Emerging 360X240

Opening Calls:

Corn +1 to 2

Beans -1 to 2

 

Yesterday, July corn gained 3/4 of a cent for the day, finishing at 3.62 1/2, while December gained 1/2, to end at 3.81. For the month of April, both of these lost about 4 cents. However, if you go back to the first of February, July futures are down about 30 cents, and December has lost about 20 cents.

 

In the soy complex, July bean futures lost 6 3/4 yesterday, ending at 8.54, and November beans were off 6, closing at 8.74 3/4. For the month of April, both of these lost about 44 cents. Going back to the first of February, July beans are down 88 cents through yesterday, and November is off about 81.

 

So much for the bad news.

 

Looking forward, it’s more of a good news/bad news situation. Typically, by the end of this week, the U.S. has about 46% of the corn crop planted. It certainly doesn’t look like there will be much progress the next couple of days, so we should expect that Monday’s planting progress report won’t be much changed from this week’s reported 15% and Iowa at 21%. Granted, there is still plenty of time to get the crop planted, but it appears that the traders in Chicago are starting to at least acknowledge the calendar. Perhaps even more so, today, as they flip to a new month. There is also some strength in wheat that is temporarily helping corn, but there are also several news stories starting to circulate about “feed grade” wheat. This could end up hurting corn prices if much of the wheat is not of the right quality for food grade applications. Something to keep an eye on.

 

For soybeans, about the only hope left on the table is some sort of resolution to the trade issues with China. “IF” that were to happen, it should give New Crop values a little lift. How soon an agreement takes place is the key. We certainly don’t want this dragging out another 2 to 3 months. If you are trying to market some Old Crop, look at any rallies as a selling opportunity.