Morning Comments March 4, 2021

Soybeans2

Weekly export sales came out this morning with poor corn numbers for the second consecutive week, while beans were a touch higher than expected. Corn sales were at 4.6Mln and beans at 12.3Mln. Outstanding sales balances that have not yet shipped stand at 1.297Bln corn (507Mln a year ago) and 274Mln beans (153Mln a year ago). 

Prices have hit a lull here for the moment, due to declining new export sales, better weather in South America and the U.S., and a stronger U.S. dollar. Also, wire stories are surfacing again that say the recent ASF outbreak in China is worse than reported. Internally, Chinese pork prices are two to three times normal prices, which would not necessarily reflect a herd size fully returned to 2017 levels, as the Chinese ag minister reported last week. 

The weekly EIA ethanol stats came out yesterday. Production was 0.849MBPD and stocks were 22.425MBLS. As expected, production recovered from natural gas shortages two weeks ago and stocks fell slightly. April–May is plant maintenance season, so production likely will slow some and stocks will further draw down as we enter Spring driving season. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: down 2-4c

Beans: up 3-5c