Morning Comments March 31, 2020

Corn closeup

Opening Calls:

Corn: Steady to 1 lower

Soybeans: 2 to 5 lower

The corn market struggles to work higher as crude oil hits 18 year lows around $20/barrel. There is not a lot of optimism in the oil market as stay-at-home orders are extended and there is still a lack of communication between Saudi Arabia and Russia. With the USDA reports out today, estimations are that ethanol usage will be dropped in the April WASDE, but an increase in feed usage may help offset this loss. The futures market is forward looking so the numbers on the report will carry some weight, but the market will still be faced with problems in the energy industry and any rally may very well be capped by these concerns. 

The soybean market looks to square up ahead of the release of the USDA reports. The meal market continues to have strength as DDG’s are less available. The soybean market is unable to escape the volatility in the other markets as it is attracting more volume with corn at undesirable levels. 

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Here is another look at the expectations for today’s report:

Corn - March 1st Grain Stocks (in billions of bushels) 

Average Estimate: 8.125

Range of Estimates: 7.825 to 8.492

Last Year: 8.613


2020/21 Prospective Plantings (in millions of acres) 

Average Estimate: 94.328

Range of Estimates: 92.5 to 96.4

Last Year: 89.7

USDA Feb Outlook: 94 


Soybeans - March 1st Grain Stocks (in billions of bushels) 

Average Estimate: 2.241

Range of Estimates: 2.075 to 2.701

Last Year: 2.727


2020/21 Prospective Plantings (in millions of acres) 

Average Estimate: 84.865

Range of Estimates: 82.7 to 87.1

Last Year: 76.1

USDA Feb Outlook: 85

Actual USDA data will be sent out shortly after the 11:00AM report.