Morning Comments March 29, 2019

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Opening calls:

Corn:  steady to slightly lower

Beans: steady to +2


March 29th is finally here. It seems like we’ve been anticipating this date and the USDA reports for quite a long time. The last fairly significant report from the USDA, originally scheduled for January 11 was delayed due to the Federal Government shut down. When it was eventually released, it felt a little anticlimactic. The reports that will be released today tend to be fairly significant every year, and this year is no exception, as we’ll get both the first peek at the USDA’s official estimates for U.S. corn and soybean acres for 2019, as well as a look at U.S. stocks as of March 1st. Some years, the surprise is in the acreage estimates, some years it’s the stocks that move the market. Either way, these reports are shaping up to be fairly significant. One will tell us what to expect with regard to New Crop while the other will give a good idea of how close the demand estimates have been so far for Old Crop.


For corn acres, the average estimate is 91.3 million acres, with a range of analyst estimates from 89.5 to 92.7. Last year was 89.13 and 2017 was 90.17.

For soybeans, the average estimate is 86.17, with a range of 84.26 to 88 million acres. Last year was 89.20, with 2017 at 90.14


For U.S. stocks, the average trade estimate for corn, is 8.335 billion bushels in a range of 7.62 to 8.80. Last year, the USDA estimate was 8.892.

For soybeans, the average stocks estimate is 2.683 with a range of 2.095 to 2.797. USDA last year estimated March 1 stocks at 2.109.


So, a lot of numbers to digest. We’ll send out another e-mail as soon as possible after the reports are released. Stay tuned.


PLEASE NOTE: Our grain policy is changing effective April 1st. The change will be with regard to free time for a delivery. For any new delivery started on or after April 1st, you will have 15 days to make a decision about disposition. These 15 days will also apply to the amount of time allowed for averaging loads on that delivery. On day 16, any open contracts will be filled and the balance of the grain will be automatically placed on open storage unless other arrangements have been made by the 15th day.  This change will help the cooperative be more efficient transferring grain throughout the year, and especially during Harvest.