Morning Comments March 17, 2021

Soybeans Farnhamville

The markets are sagging lower this morning, with the exception of old crop corn, which has been supported this week by additional export demand. The USDA reported a corn sale early yesterday of 45Mln bu to China for the current marketing year. As this is being written, there has been an additional corn sale announced to China this morning, about the same volume as yesterday. Despite some fears of ASF resurgence in China, these recent corn purchases should diminish the possibility of China corn cancellations. This also makes it very likely that the USDA will have to increase corn exports in subsequent reports, which will reduce ending stocks. 

The weekly EIA ethanol data will be out later this morning. We can expect production to move higher as spot ethanol margins are the best they have been in months, caused mainly by an increase in ethanol prices. 

March 31 USDA quarterly grain stocks and intended acreage is looming two weeks from today. Barring an acreage survey surprise, we can believe the focus of the report will be more-so on the grain stocks numbers. Those numbers will be used as a check to what implied domestic feeding rates have been assumed to be. That stocks data will then be taken into account for the next WASDE monthly supply demand report in April to make any feed demand adjustments. 

U.S. weather has been pretty good, with moderate temperatures and precipitation chances rolling through the Midwest every 4-5 days. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: steady to 2c higher

Beans: down 5-7c