Morning Comments March 15, 2019

Dji 0009

Opening Calls:

Corn steady to down 1

Soybeans +1 to 2


A mini-rally for corn in Chicago yesterday with May futures up 3 3/4 for the day and December up 1 3/4. The main driver was more confidence that some sort of agreement with China will include them buying U.S. corn. This could be a major source of bullish news if in fact it comes to reality. For now, we would encourage you to look at this as a selling opportunity IF the board can sustain this rally another 10 cents or so. Too often, we see the rumors and thoughts of a potential sale drive the market up, but once the facts are known, the deal is done, and there is no more reasons to rally. So, get some offers in place. The cash market is pretty flat for the next few months, meaning there is just as much demand for corn in the next 2-3 weeks as there is in the next 2-3 months. Once corn starts to flow freely, that will most likely start to change dramatically and go back to a more normal pattern of better values in the further out months, as we return to a more normal carry in the market.


The soybean complex wasn’t as friendly yesterday, with May futures down 2 1/2 and November down 3. NOPA will release their February crush report later this morning. Most analysts expect a range of 154.7 million bushels to 164.27, with an average guestimate of 158.73. if realized at 158.73, that would be down some from January, but mainly because there are only 28 days in Feb. Comparing it to last Feb, it would mean 3.3% above a year ago, meaning U.S. crush remains on record pace for the year. There is also still a glimmer of hope for more sales to China for Old Crop soybeans.


Outside markets show the dollar trading higher yesterday due to weakness with the British Pound. Crude oil continues to add a little more all the time, with the April contract now above $58 (for West Texas). Ethanol futures were also higher yesterday.


It’s not too late to get registered for Ventures. This is a 1 1/2 day conference for Women involved in Agriculture, and will be held next Friday and Saturday, March 22 and 23 in West Des Moines. You can find more information on the Landus Cooperative website.