Morning Comments March 12, 2021

Grain Cornfield w Landus Cooperative 2016

The markets are drifting lower at the pause this morning, on a general lack of any bullish news. The weather is improving for South America, as rains are forecasted for parched areas in Argentina and Southern Brazil and northern Brazil dries out. The central U.S. is preparing for a large rain/snow event Sunday/Monday.

It has been a disappointing week for the bulls with the WASDE report left unchanged on US balance sheets and no significant new export sales announced. Also, additional stories about ASF strain resurgence in China brought out a round of fund selling. Bull market fundamentals are still in place; demand is solid and ending stocks will be very low. Technically, we are testing key support levels. Holding May corn above $5.30 and May beans above $13.90 support levels are important. Breaching those levels would open a lower trade range. 

Soy oil continues an impressive rally to new highs. The May contract has traded 55c/lb, an astounding 34% price increase since the December 31 close at 41c/lb. The combination of renewable diesel demand coming online and restaurant activity recovery post-Covid have been the drivers. 

The next key USDA data point will be the quarterly grain stocks & intended acreage report on March 31. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: down 2-4c

Beans: down 5-8c