Our markets took a step back overnight with December corn futures and November soybean futures both leading the slide lower. Forecasts really haven’t changed, and still showing dry conditions for the Western Corn Belt lasting through at least the next two weeks. However, there are few showers hitting the worst of the worst drought areas (the Dakotas) who look to have another shot at some rain this Friday. This seems to have taken the edge off, at least to start the day. Overall, though, there doesn’t appear to be a shift in the weather patterns yet.
We may start to see some pre-report positioning today with the June S&D report due out from the USDA at 11 a.m. tomorrow. There are many “bulls” out there who feel that the USDA needs to take the domestic demand numbers a bit higher on old crop corn, tightening our carryouts even further. Some combination of increases in ethanol, feed, and export demand could all be rationalized/justified, but will they show it?
The soybean side of the balance sheet is a little trickier. The recent pullback in domestic crush has many people wondering if we will see a reduction in the demand forecast from the USDA. It might be a little early for that, I’m not sure we see that tomorrow, but the market feels like it is expecting a mostly unchanged soybean S&D this time around. We will have more details on the pre-report estimates and average trade guesses for you tomorrow morning.
Corn is 5 to 10 cents lower
Soybeans are 8 to 12 cents lower