Morning Comments June 7, 2022

Agronomy Sprayer

Wheat and corn managed to maintain early morning strength throughout the day, fueled by a lack of positive progress in Ukraine as well as a return of dip buyers after last week's washout. Soybeans struggled to maintain their strength throughout the day, with the July board closing up a penny while November beans were up 6. July wheat finished the day 53 higher, with July corn up 15.

Russia taking a more aggressive stance over the weekend with attacks in Kyiv and a Southern port east of Odessa had many questioning how serious they really are when it comes to reopening Ukrainian ports for export. In addition to questions regarding their seriousness, reports continue to grow regarding Russian theft of grain out of the Eastern oblasts they are invading. 

Some estimate upwards of a third of grain supplies in the regions in question have been stolen and are being set for export by Russia. US officials believe the stolen grain is slated to go to upwards of 14 countries, warning them taking such supplies could result in punishment. 

The Russian foreign minister is still set to travel to Turkey to discuss how the two countries can facilitate exports out of Ukraine through the Black Sea tomorrow, with Ukrainian officials noticeably absent from any such in person discussions. In addition to questioning why they haven't been invited to negotiate, Ukrainian officials are now adamant it will take up to 6 months for them to demine ports.

Outside of continued Black Sea developments we are monitoring export flow and crop conditions here in the US and throughout the world. Argentina is working towards harvest with a relatively decent crop expected that will allow the country to continue to see record revenue gained through commodity exports. Brazil's second crop corn continues to struggle with dryness in the heart of the country, though crop estimates remain relatively elevated, especially compared to last year's drought stricken crop.

Here in the US export inspections for the week were in line with expectations for corn and wheat, but below expectations for soybeans. Corn shipments to China remained in line with the recent average, while soybean shipments to China were minimal. Wheat shipments were slow for the week compared to prior years, but with tighter old crop carryout and a slower than normal start to harvest it was not unexpected.

Crop progress released after the close showed the US farmer is back to the 5 year average when it comes to corn planting pace, with 94% of the crop planted. Conditions are some of the best initial ratings seen and at 73% rated good to excellent, came in above pre-report expectations. 

Traders will likely spend much of their summer debating conditions and what they mean for yields, though the USDA has been clear in previous years condition ratings don't really play a role in production outlooks. The trend of ratings will be far more important than the actual number in the end. 

Soybean planting was 78% complete as of Sunday night across the country, 1% behind the 5 year average.

Wheat conditions continue to struggle with some recovery seen after recent rains in the Southern Plains, though many will contend the moisture came far too late to provide any real benefit to yields.
Looking ahead we will continue to watch what is happening in Ukraine as folks weigh how optimistic they should be in the face of Russia's renewed flex. Outside markets continue to struggle with folks recognizing how difficult it will be for the Fed to manufacture a soft landing no matter how confident they seem to remain in their ability.

Markets are a bit weaker overnight on a continued decent US weather outlook and limited news elsewhere. 

Corn up 1 to 2

Beans steady to 1 lower