Morning Comments June 5, 2019

Corn 96770 Pixels Free To Use

Opening Calls

Corn down 7

Beans down 7

Yesterday, the July corn contract closed up 1, settling at $4.25 1/4, and the December contract was 2 1/4 higher at $4.44. Corn settled higher, but off the highs on the overnight of 10 cents up after Monday’s afternoon Planting Progress Report. Trade’s attention turned to the positive forecast that’s allowing farmers to get back into the fields, making corn lose steam during trade yesterday. The corn market traded lower on the overnight on rumors that Smithfield and other big users are going to import Argentine corn (which is cheaper than the US), and today is the critical day for negotiations between U.S. and Mexico over immigration issues before the 5% tariff is imposed on Mexican goods. Also, putting downward pressure on corn is the depleting ethanol margins from higher-priced corn and lower-priced crude, slowing corn demand for ethanol. 

Yesterday, the July soybean contract closed 2 3/4 higher settling at $8.81 3/4, and November was 3 higher, closing at $9.09. Beans followed corn and wheat lower, and the positive forecast for farmers to get in the field and plant. The current weather forecast has trade wondering if farmers will try to plant corn, take prevent plant, or switch to beans. In the end, it's hard to continue to be a bull, with the likelihood that South America will expand their bean acres by 3-4% with the largest bean consumer (China) making big purchases, and U.S. soybean carryout being close to the 1 billion bushel area.