Morning Comments June 4, 2020

Grain Podcast

Opening Calls:

Corn: 1 or 2 higher 

Beans: 2 to 3 higher

The corn market recovered yesterday from narrow losses to close essentially unchanged. Yesterday's ethanol report continues to show a slow and steady recovery; however, this pace is behind current USDA projections and another modest trim could be likely in the next report on June 11. The favorable numbers were offset but good weather is covering the corn belt. Hot and humid conditions are eating away at the weather premium in the market. We're still a long way from harvest, but the supply side may just be too good and the demand will have to improve to see a recovery in prices. Export numbers will be released today. Expectations within the trade are that they will be down relative to the recent weeks. Argentinian prices are hard to compete with and the South American 2nd crop harvest is at the doorstep. 

The soybean market has gotten a lift from a weakening dollar (down 15% in 2 weeks) and a strengthening of the Brazilian Real. This recent change is cutting into Brazil's profits. The market looks to be sitting patient until we see the export report today and assess any further development with Chinese purchases. We're above the 50-day moving average and posted a close above what has been a major resistance level recently. Conditions have been great, but there is still 20% of the soybean crop that needs to get into the ground nationwide. 

We continue to believe that these spikes in corn and beans should be sold, and you should price a portion of your old-crop corn and/or beans when you see them. There is a lot of pressure on the upside, mostly from what appears to be a significantly large U.S. crop coming. We also believe that the month of June is the best opportunity for you to move your farm stored grain. July and August will most likely see a large movement by many and will put pressure on cash prices. Because of this, we are working hard to earn your business for June delivery. Please contact your local Grain Marketing Advisor or Customer Service Specialist at your local Landus facility for more information.