Morning Comments June 30, 2021

July corn

Today is not only the end of the month and end of the quarter, it is also report day! At 11 a.m. today the USDA will release their 2021 Planted Acreage numbers along with their Quarterly Grain Stocks report. To dive into a few numbers/expectations for you:

  • Corn Acres
    • Last year’s planted acres: 90.8m acres
    • March planting intentions: 91.1m acres
    • Average trade estimate for today’s report: 93.8m acres (Range of estimates is 92.0 – 95.8m acres)
  • Soybean Acres
    • Last year’s planted acres: 83.1m acres
    • March planting intentions: 87.6m acres
    • Average trade estimate for today’s report: 89.0m acres (Range of estimates is 87.9 – 90.4m acres)
  • Quarterly Stocks as of June 1
    • Last year’s (2020) June 1 corn stocks: 5.003b bushels
    • Trade estimate for 2021 June 1 corn stocks: 4.144b bushels (Range of estimates is 3.9b – 4.5b bushels)
    • Last year’s (2020) June 1 soybean stocks: 1.381b bushels
    • Trade estimate for 2021 June 1 corn stocks: 0.787b bushels (Range of estimates is 0.69b – 0.95b bushels)

So, what does it all mean? Well at 11:00:00 the fresh data dump will hit the news wires and the initial push in the market will simply come from any major differences from trade estimates shown above in bold. This is where you get the big swings as the initial reaction and whip can be big (and temporary) in a thinner market environment. After that, of course, the traders will digest the numbers and push their pencils (while taking another glance at the weather) to start projecting carry-outs for next year and then make decisions from there. Fun, right? The way we CLOSE today will be much more important to future price action than what happens in the seconds/minutes after the report is released.

As for weather, some forecasts are starting to show a few additional shots of rain out in the 6–10-day forecast for the NW belt, this could be some of the reason for a weaker trade last night. Even though today will be all about the report, don’t get used to it, we will likely be back to weather talk tomorrow! 

Currently

Corn is 12 to 14 cents lower

Soybeans are 8 to 10 cents lower