Morning Comments June 25, 2021

Corn For Grain Advisors Invite

If all you got to see yesterday was the closing corn prices, you saw that corn settled down a penny or two, but you probably didn’t realize that corn made an impressive recovery after trading over 20c lower at one point yesterday morning. Some of that rally back was due to weather uncertainty but a lot of it seemed to come from technical buying, as the charts started to look pretty oversold. Unsurprisingly I’ve seen a few analysts toss out “buy signals” for corn end-users on this recent break. Last night though, the corn market was much less interesting, trading a touch higher earlier on and a touch lower this morning while soybeans have spent the session trading mostly higher. Not a lot of action/direction.

Having another rain system move across the Midwest was enough to keep a lid on our markets once again this morning as this one hit southern IA and northern MO last night (24-hour precipitation totals shown below). Meanwhile, you have MN hard red Spring wheat prices about ready to test new highs (!!) as the NW belt and northern plains just can’t catch a rain. While some states are catching a few rains as I mentioned, it’s pretty clear when looking at the updated drought monitor (shown below) just how desperately they need some precipitation to our north and west. 

So here we are, another Friday upon us which means we have another weekend’s worth of risk (in changing forecasts) to trade around. For better or worse, the weather forecasts will continue to dominate the conversation until roughly 10:59:59 AM next Wednesday as the market takes a breath for the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports get released. Those acreages will let us know just how important the weather outlook will be for next year. Did we plant enough acres to be able to withstand some problems?? We will see. 

Currently

Corn is 1 to 3 cents lower

Soybeans are 5 to 7 cents lower

June 25 Map 1
June 25 Map 2
June 25 Map 3