After a rough day yesterday in both corn (down 18c) and soybeans (down 18c) our markets recovered a bit last night and traded on both sides of yesterday’s close. Yesterday’s wave of selling came not only from the spec funds but from weather traders who witnessed surprise rains in Iowa yesterday along with short-term forecasts showing additional chances for rain later this week. The trick here is that the longer-term forecasts (6–10-day, 8–14-day, and beyond) still show troublesome conditions for the NW part of the corn belt with dry conditions settling back in. This tug of war in weather between those who are getting rain (the Eastern corn belt) and those who aren’t (the NW corn belt) has the state of Iowa right in the middle of it. Trying to understand how much risk premium should be built into the market is a tough one for the trade right now, creating some very volatile days as you are all aware.
Looking ahead, one week from today is when the June Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage reports will be released. We will start to see additional private estimates of that report show up as the week wears on. These reports of course are extremely important for price direction and could easily set the tone for the balance of the Summer. Once we get final planted acreage behind us, the market will start to shift into high gear on projecting yields. Not an easy task.
Corn is 3 to 5 cents lower
Soybeans are steady to 4 cents lower