Morning Comments June 22, 2021

Sillouette Sunset Location Rail

Our weekly crop progress report was released yesterday afternoon (maps below), which had the national good-to-excellent ratings in corn falling lower for the third straight week. After starting the year at 76% G/E, corn ratings came in at 65% G/E in yesterday’s update with Iowa down another 7% this week, showing only 56% of the corn crop in the good-to-excellent category. Not ideal. This news kicked our markets off higher to start the trade last night, only to see prices fade as the evening wore on thanks in part to another round of rains coming later this week (in particular for Iowa).

I’m afraid that volatile prices are going to remain the norm here for quite a while as the market continues to focus on weather forecasts that are shifting every six hours. We’ve been reminded many times recently from our broker friends in Chicago that you “shouldn’t trade your backyard, unless your backyard is Iowa.” It’s a simple fact is that the Iowa corn crop is important to the overall S&D and looking at our state’s condition ratings this morning while knowing how tight the balance sheet is – well, that could be enough to keep anyone with a short position (physical or futures) from getting a good night’s sleep.

Currently

Corn is 3 to 6 cents lower

Soybeans are mixed, couple cents higher to a couple cents lower

June 22 Map 1
June 22 Map 2