Morning Comments June 2, 2021

Corn closeup

Our corn market traded mixed overnight last night after it was off to the races yesterday, led by hot/dry weather forecasts that popped up after the long weekend. Yesterday afternoon we saw our first look into corn crop conditions (we will do this again every week from now until harvest, so get used to it) and they came in better than expected with 76% of the U.S. corn crop falling in the “good to excellent” category (map is below). Some notables were Nebraska at 88%, Iowa at 81%, and Illinois at 80% good to excellent. This caused the market to open up a nickel lower last night, only to recover and trade higher later on in the session.

With the weather forecast being what it is, you have to wonder if yesterday’s corn crop conditions will be the high we see for a few of these states for a while?? Time will tell. As for soybeans, it is too early for conditions to be reported, but it’s worth noting that beans are 84% planted in the U.S., well ahead of the 5-year average of 67%.

For today and the balance of the week into next week, the June 10th S&D report is now hanging over our heads. We will start to see the private companies release their estimates over the next few days in preparation for the data dump from the USDA next Thursday. The elephant in the room (to me)- the Brazilian corn production number. The USDA had Brazil’s crop at 102m MT last month, and we have seen private estimates closer to 90m MT. For perspective: a 10m MT swing converts to just under 400m bushels. It will be hard to grow our U.S. carry-outs next year if U.S. exports need to make up for that type of drop.

Speaking of Brazil, I read yesterday that Brazil issued what they call a “Water Emergency Alert” for the first time in 111 years! I don’t know about you, but something that hasn’t happened in 111 years feels pretty significant.

Currently:

Corn is mixed, penny lower to a penny higher

Soybeans are 5 to 10 cents higher

June 2 Map 1