Morning Comments June 16, 2021

Agronomy Sprayer

Our markets are mixed to start the day, with corn recovering and carving out small gains while soybeans are still leading the way lower. The soybean market is reeling a bit after seeing the NOPA crush report yesterday, which showed a relatively disappointing month of U.S. soybeans being crushed into meal and oil (163.5m bushels crushed in May versus expectations of 165.1m bushels, though up from the 160.3m bushel number we saw for April). This has some in the trade feeling a little better about ending stocks this summer, but make no mistake about it, bean supplies still look to be tight and potentially/likely even tighter next year. 

Weather– the belt is still dry this morning with some high heat coming this week, but it’s all about the cooler, wetter forecasts which have been enough to keep a lid on prices lately, or at least keep new longs (buyers) from entering the market. Maps from NOAA below. With weather rallies temporarily pushed to the sidelines, the trade is starting to talk more and more about U.S. acres and the June 30th report. The fear of course from the bullish camp is that the USDA could show a big jump in corn acres and this fear could be enough for us to see additional profit taking (selling) between now and that report. 

Currently

Corn is 3 to 5 cents higher

Soybeans are 7 to 10 cents lower

June 16 Map 1
June 16 Map 2