Morning Comments June 15, 2021

Bin sunset harvest

The weather debate continues (and will for a while) as the market is still reeling from the abrupt change in forecast over the weekend which now shows cooler, wetter weather for the tail end of June. Yesterday afternoon the USDA released their weekly crop conditions update which dropped the good-to-excellent ratings in corn down to 68% (from 72% last week) and slashed soybeans from 67% G/E down to 62%. Those are both lower than expectations (meaning: friendly to prices) but the market really isn’t responding to that yet despite the biggest setbacks occurring in some of the biggest states (Iowa is down 14% on corn and down 12% on soybeans, maps below). Will the wetter forecast shift in time to turn the crop around? This is where you will find the debate. For this morning, the forecast appears to once again have center stage as our markets are all under pressure.

In other market news, there is a new concern coming out of Washington D.C. with discussions taking place about relaxing the biofuel blending requirements for U.S. oil refiners, which has given the market a softer tone as well. When you combine that with the weather as well as a somewhat quiet export picture, the bearish side of the market is winning the debate. We get updated weather maps roughly every 6 hours and we know we are starting the day softer, but the midday maps could be what gives us direction into the close.

Currently

Corn is 5 to 10 cents lower

Soybeans are 5 to 10 cents lower

June 15 Map 1
June 15 Map 2