Morning Comments July 9, 2021

Grain bins dryer

Our corn market continued to drift lower last night while the soybean market is treading water, sitting right in the middle of its recent range. Corn is starting to test some of its recent lows (which were set back in June and also in May), which is a bit concerning. Corn is currently down over 60c this week while soybeans are down over 80c -- why all of the weakness? Well the initial slam lower on Tuesday was due in large part to the wet forecast for this weekend, and well, the weekend is here and that looks to be holding true, see maps below for current radar and the wet weekend forecast. Hence the fading of prices.

So, what are we watching for now? First, of course, we will keep an eye on the weather forecasts for any shifts/changes. That won’t change for a while. Second, the USDA’s July Supply & Demand Report will be released at 11 a.m. Monday. This is the first time the USDA will project carry-outs using our planted acreage numbers, which means the new wildcard will be: YIELDS. Which is of course everyone’s favorite thing to argue about.

I know how volatile our markets have been and I know this report is coming right on the heels of bullish acreage news and questionable weather all around us, but I have this feeling that it may not be that eventful. It just might be a little early for yield revisions to be made by the USDA and I am not feeling any major shifts in demand since the last S&D report. Of course, that’s the thing about surprises– you don’t see them coming.

Enjoy the weekend; on Monday morning we will send more detailed information on trade expectations/guesses for the report and we can go from there. For the balance of today, the market is feeling a little heavy. We just need to be careful that we don’t break through some support on the corn chart, triggering more selling ahead of the weekend. The 1:15 p.m. close can’t get here fast enough.

Currently

Corn is 5 to 8 cents lower

Soybeans are steady to a couple cents lower

July 9 Map 1
July 9 Map 2