Morning Comments July 8, 2021

Red Barn Behind Field

Our corn and soybean futures markets have slid right back into the same general trading range where we were pre-report, with better weather forecasts pressuring the markets lower while those maps stay just questionable enough (still dry in the NW) to keep us from falling much farther.

This morning, Brazil’s CONAB (think: Brazilian USDA) released fresh production numbers which showed another reduction in the size of their second season corn crop. CONAB now has the total corn production for Brazil down to 93.4MMT from their previous report of 96.4MMT and well below last year’s production of 102.6MMT.

This won’t be the last time we talk about that Brazilian corn crop, as it will be a key piece to the puzzle to next year’s S&D, potentially driving more export business to the U.S. The USDA will release their estimate this coming Monday in their next supply & demand report. They have been slowly walking that crop size down; in June they had it at 98.0MMT and most traders think they will continue to slow-play this, expecting them to call it 94MMT in their report next week. Meanwhile, the trade itself seems to think it is 88.0MMT and falling. Time will tell. I will say that this story has been a bit muted as of late, thanks to end-users around the world sourcing more feed, wheat, and other alternative grains vs high-priced corn.

So for today, we will continue to watch weather maps for any signs of a change. As mentioned above, there is a USDA report out Monday which will be our first look at next year’s carry-outs with our new planted acreage numbers. To get there though, we need to get through another weather weekend,

Currently

Corn is 5 to 7 cents lower

Soybeans are 10 to 14 cents lower

July 8 Map 1
July 8 Map 2
July 8 Map 3 July 8 Map 4