Morning Comments July 5, 2019

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There was no overnight trade last night. Trading will resume at 8:30 a.m. this morning. 

Based on the closes from Wednesday (see below), we’re expecting both corn and soybeans to open steady to a little higher

Wednesday, the September corn contract closed 17 3/4 higher, settling at $4.36 3/4. The December contract was 15 1/4 higher closing at $4.41 1/4. Traders were optimistic about prices, citing the uncertainty of the crop, the fact that corn seemed to find support at the $4.20 level in the December contract and the hope that the truce agreement between the US and China will bring some buying. While there is no evidence of any Chinese buying, the truce does appear to bring politics back into the markets. 

US ethanol production last week rose to 318 million gallons from 315 million gallons the week prior and was 1.3% above last year’s same-week production of 314 million gallons. This morning we will see the release of the USDA’s weekly export sales report, normally out on Thursday morning. The trade expectations are wide with a range of 200-700,000 mt. US corn is not competitive on the world market and so we would expect exports to come in at the lower end of expectations.

Wednesday, the August soybean contract closed 10 higher settling at $8.89 3/4. The November contract was also 10 higher closing at $9.08 3/4. The USDA’s weekly export sales report is due out this morning. The range of estimates runs from 600,000 mt to 1.2 mmt. A big Chinese sale last week is the reason why sales will be larger than we have seen in recent weeks. The export situation in beans still comes down to whether or not China ships the large number of beans listed as sold, but not yet shipped.

Later today, the Landus Cooperative Experience podcast, featuring the Bull Bear Banter will be released. This week, along with the normal recap of the week’s markets, we’ll have a bonus track with Dave Lemke, Sr. Sales Agronomist. Dave also manages the research plot at Farnhamville and will share his insights on current crop conditions and various items the agronomy team is keeping an eye on. We hope you’ll find time to listen to the podcast over the weekend.