Morning Comments July 3, 2019

Corn with location behind

Opening Calls:

Corn: Up 4 to 7 

Soybeans: Up 4 to 6

The grain markets will be closing at 12:05 PM today for observance the 4th of July holiday and will not reopen until 8:30 AM Friday morning. 

Demand continues to be a concern for the corn market with U.S. corn the most expensive in the world, allowing Brazil and Argentina to dominate the export markets. It doesn’t help that Ukraine had a record crop last year and appears to be in the process of raising another one this year. This morning will see the release of the EIA’s weekly ethanol production and stocks reports. Last week’s ethanol production was down just a bit from the previous week and the trade is expecting another similar week with production of around 310 million gallons. Ethanol stocks are expected to continue their seasonal decline. The battle between crop loss and demand loss is going to be ongoing - likely right into harvest.

The big problem for the soybean market remains the large old crop inventory and the slow Chinese import pace with some concern that sales already on the books, but not shipped, may ultimately be cancelled or rolled into new crop. This morning the bean market is trading higher recovering a little of what was lost yesterday, but we would not expect this rally to go too far without some new positive news and with a pretty good weather forecast that seems unlikely in the short run. 

The September dollar index is trading 3 points lower this morning at around 96.25.

This morning the August crude oil contract is trading around $0.60 higher. The August contract is trading just below the $57.00 level. 

Have a safe 4th of July!